Usually when we talk Texas weather in early June its “how hot is it going to be” and “what time are the thunderstorms going to start”? Considering those possibilities, along with what we’ve encountered over the last couple years, this year’s forecast for Texas Motor Speedway and the DXC 600 actually looks really good!
THE WEATHER: Though it may not seem to apply to the Dallas/Fort Worth area, we’re going to start this discussion way further south in the Gulf of Mexico. As of Wednesday afternoon a weak tropical circulation is moving up the south Texas coast. The southerly flow on the east side of this circulation is tapping into tropical moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in some pretty heavy and persistent rain near the Houston/Galveston area and scattered showers and storms over the eastern half of the state. At the same time, an upper-level system moving in from New Mexico is contributing to drawing that Gulf moisture well into central Texas. By early Thursday, the low-level circulation will depart the Houston area and move into Louisiana…dragging the majority of rainfall with it, though we are still likely to see some thunderstorm activity in the Dallas/Fort Worth area on Thursday…which could create a delay to IndyCar’s first practice session at 7 pm depending on where those hit-or-miss storms actually develop and track through. By Friday we are down to a very low chance of precipitation as the forcing mechanisms for these storms has mostly departed the region and Saturday looks to be completely rain-free, not just for the Speedway, but the entire state of Texas.
FOR FANS: Keep an eye on radar on Thursday afternoon…but after that, constant hydration and reapplication of sunscreen (at least until sunset occurs) will likely be your biggest concern this weekend. Initial forecasts called for a very hot and muggy Saturday afternoon and early evening, with high dewpoints helping to push the heat index into the 100-105 degree-F range. However, data gleaned from the last couple runs of the weather models suggest a more moderate-level of heat…in fact, some were showing maximum ambient temperatures in the 88-90 degree range. Though I wasn’t quite comfortable with lowering my initial assessment that much lower…yet…things do appear to be trending in the right direction.
FOR DRIVERS: Outside of a possible delay to practice 1 on Thursday due to a passing storm; the heat & humidity combo remain likely to be the biggest environmental factor. First, because the high heat makes the track ‘slick’. Second, for the same reason that I have concerns for spectators…the risk of heat exhaustion and the impact to driver’s stamina and concentration. That said, these conditions are not really excessive or extreme to those that have been encountered in previous races. Winds aren’t expected to be a major factor, they are forecast to be fairly light by Texas Motor Speedway standards. There is a wind shift however, with a 180-degree flop from a northwesterly wind during Friday qualifying to a south-southeasterly direction during Saturday night’s race. Finally, with a green flag set at 7:45 pm (local) and clear skies, sunset can sometimes be a challenge for visibility with the changing sun angle, particularly as drivers come out of turn 3 and head west toward the setting sun into turn 4. Sunset on Saturday evening is set for 8:35 pm (this element of the forecast I have complete 100% confidence in occurring!)
As with every race weekend, you can expect a detailed weather briefing daily posted to my twitter account (@Indycar_wxman). If this forecast goes the way I think it will, it looks like I’ll get to be pretty quiet on twitter during the actual race and just sit back and enjoy with the rest of you!
IndyCar Weatherman