Lock: Will Power
I hate to be Mr. Obvious, but after an up-and-down run on the big oval block of the schedule, you don't want to bet against Power as we return to road and street courses. He won here last year, and will be eager to repeat to keep up the fight against Dario Franchitti in the championship.
Drop: Helio Castroneves
It might seem odd to target a Team Penske car for this, but hear me out. As far as Toronto goes, Helio crashed out in 2010 (P24), and finished P18 in 2009. What's more, going back to when he ran here in CART, he only finished one out of four races. So far, Toronto just hasn't been his sort of city.
Sleeper: Justin Wilson
True, Wilson's had a relatively average year so far, but he's still an ace on the twisties. He won the Toronto pole last year and led the most laps in the race before spinning late. He recovered to finish P7, but his sights will be higher this year. Going back further, don't forget his P5 finish in 2009, and a win here in Champ Car back in 2005. He's got the history and talent to pull it off.
---Zach Houghton
Lock: Will Power
Surprised anyone? Power is the defending winner at Toronto and remains probably the best road and street course in the series. What's more, after a tough stretch of oval races where he ran well (even winning one a race at Texas) only to be undone on pit lane (Indianapolis and Iowa). The last thing anyone needs to give Power is extra motivation heading to a track in which he's already won on. That's exactly what we have here.
Drop: Takuma Sato
Even though his form has improved this year, he still finds himself against the wall too much. In Iowa, the cards seem to align for Sato and it looked like he may finally close the deal. But, after the final pit stop, once again his propensity for crashing reared its ugly head. Now, we're heading to Toronto, a placed where Sato (you guessed it) crashed last year (and with teammate in Mario Moraes nonetheless). Until he can consistently finish well, leave Sato out of your lineup.
Sleeper: Ryan Hunter-Reay
Even though he has having one of biggest "bad luck" seasons we've ever seen, Hunter-Reay has been very fast on the road and street courses and would have the results to show it if not for mechanical failures, driver error, or insane weather conditions. As the series heads back to a street course (and one he has done well the last two years), Hunter-Reay has a chance to start redeeming himself.
---Kyle Lavigne
Lock: Will Power
The defending champion at Toronto said he feels fine after suffering a minor concussion on a tough night in Iowa. And considering that we're heading back to the twisty tracks for a bit, that's good enough for me.
Drop: E.J. Viso
A 13th-place finish in 2009 and a run-in with Raphael Matos last year that helped knock him to 19th at race's end shouldn't give fantasy racers a lot of faith in the Venezuelan at Toronto.
Sleeper: James Hinchcliffe
Yes, it's his first race in an IndyCar on the streets of Toronto. But I just have a hunch that he could deliver this Sunday. This is his home race, so you know he and Newman-Haas will be looking to get up front and stay there.
---Chris Estrada
Lock: Will Power
I have to go with the majority this week. It was a thrill to watch Marco take the win in Iowa but it’s back to the points race this week. Dario has managed to keep Will at bay the last couple races, but I don’t think he’ll stand a chance against the road course master in Toronto.
Drop: Scott Dixon
Yep, I’m going in a different direction this time. It’s no secret that Scott hasn’t been up to par this season. The Iceman has given solid performances week in and week out, but hasn’t dominated as we’re used to. So even if he ends up finishing the race with a top 10, top 5 finish, it will still be considered a “drop” for Dixon.
Sleeper: Ryan Hunter-Reay
Call me a softie but I think the newlywed glow will light a spark in Ryan going into Toronto. He hasn’t had the best season, his team hasn’t been particularly successful, his 500 entry was clouded by controversy- but this past weekend he got hitched to girlfriend Beccy Gordon. So maybe his luck is changing and Toronto would certainly be a great place to show it.
---Kristin Slevin